After the publication of the partial examination report on the Lebanon war, Israel’s head of government battle Ehud Olmert around his political survival
The report is still much more devastating than it was originally accepted: he acted responsibility and conceptless, the Israeli Minister President Ehud Olmert in the premier investigation report to the Lebanon war was accused of last year; Defense Minister Amir Peretz Indes simply had no idea, even if he had stranded to help quickly. The publication of the Winograd report on Monday afternoon continued a huge storm: Office and politicians of all the couleur, especially the previously silent sword minister Tzippi Livni, demand loud consequences, which, however, has so far no OLMERT or PERETZ to draw: Peretz wants to wait what the Central Committee of the Workers Party says, which meets in the coming week. Meanwhile, Olmert hopes that the coalition will hold, because many of the government members have to be afraid to lose their job in the case of new elections. Especially for Kadima, which only one and a half-year-old Party Olmerts, the survey values on the basement floor have arrived: Just 01.01 percent of the Wahler were voted for Olmert when he was directly elected, it is called in a survey published on Monday night. But that’s exactly why Olmert’s bill could be wrong: It quickly sinks the realization in his group that the party will only survive if Olmert disappears from its top; In the background is already talked about possible successors.
Eliyahu Winograd Uberrecht Minister Prosident Olmert The report. Image: gpo
If he enters the hall, then no one revolves around for a long time. When he stands on the lectern, rubs a joke, then only friendly is cared for. And if he, as on Tuesday afternoon, imports the new police chief in his office, while nice things about the outgoing man, Mosche Karadi, says, who had to take his hat in the course of a corruption scandal, then the audience is in thought at a completely different matter : "How long will he be a prime minister before us?"If one of the journalists asks himself and his colleagues who raise his shoulders, maybe paused a pair of tense laugh and then go over again to the agenda.
That Ehud Olmert, Minister Prosident of the State of Israel, this office is still a long time, believe in these days itself chronic optimists, which probably at least media and opposition these days were more likely to call as a pessimist,. "Even if Ehud Olmert did not even confess himself, the truth is that there is no question of whether it’s more, but when and how," commented the otherwise rather quite nice newspaper Ma’ariv on Wednesday morning: " His failure was all-encompassing, and only an immediate jerk was able to preserve our country, the party Kadima, and what has remained of reputation of Ehud Olmert, even more severe damage."
But Olmert does not want to come up. He made mistakes during Lebanon war, he admits, but he’ll do everything now to make her good again; If you have to admit this right, he calls for him. And his supports jump to him to the side: "New elections were sent to our enemies a wrong signal," explained Schimon Peres, one of six vice-prime ministers in the government, overlooking the commuters of Hezbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who is the Winograd Report in a response on Wednesday as the arrest of the defeat of Israel celebrated in Lebanon war.
Awigdor Lieberman, chairman of the right-wing populist Jisrael Beitenu party, meanwhile emphasized, it was important, first of all, to correct the mistakes: "New elections were prevented," he said on Tuesday, "it is impossible to drove the election campaign and at the same time the recommendations of the Winograd report implement."And a spokesman for religious castor explained:" At that time, one had at Eli [the party chairman Eli Jischai, D.A.] heard, the war would be different. Therefore, it is important that we are now fully involved in the process starting now."Jischai had challenged the war to equalize in front of a floor offensive" Dorfer, Brucking and Port of the Earth."
War was irresponsible
In the core of the criticism, which the report on the occurrences in the first three days of the Lebanon war UBT (the remaining war course will be treated in the expected final report in the for July), the army is not prepared for a war; It raises gross deficits in the field of use, but also in the event of equipment; Partially, young military service providers had asked their parents to buy helmets and protective vests. In addition, the north of Israel had not been prepared for the expected missile bombardment from Lebanon: There had been no emergency tarpaulin, early warning systems did not work properly and the framework had been in a merciliation of merciliation.
From this complex derives the criticism of government and general staff: from the aforementioned reasons it had been "irresponsible" to start a war at this point. In addition, not only the war goals of government were still a general rod, ie the liberation of two unused Israeli soldiers and the destruction of Hezbollah, "uberambitiert and not feasible" and was renounced, a "exit strategy", a strategy for the case that things run out of the rudder to formulate. More, the government saw the use of the military option as a limited military offensive, without understanding where this could lead.
A special role is a special role Dan Halzutz, which has been returned for months ago: he has met the state of the militar and knowing that neither the head of government nor the Minister of Defense survive sufficient knowledge of the military situation, pierced its tarpaulin without presenting alternatives. Rarely, Cabinet members had questioned his executions. Briefly summarized: The political decision-makers were followed by the General Band Chief, who also, as the committee published in January in January, occupy internally criticism aside and at a point during the war even general administrative members prompted in meeting with politicians Following views because this could "confuse politics".
There are no doubt about these restricted factors whether it makes sense to take Olmert the error correction. "Of course, the logistical problems can be eliminated in militar and home front, and it can be planned to be better to be prepared for the next war, hopefully never coming," won it on Tuesday in the Hebraische edition of the newspaper Hairetz: " But even among the best conditions Olmert and Peretz were still unable to drove and win this war."Again and again a new beginning will be required without the two; someone else, perhaps chimer peres, that about 80-year-old old father of Israeli politics, which seems to contribute many almost overbursts in this time, should better be commissioned with the gross house plaster.
And again and again, the media comparisons with the years 1973/74 were drawn, when the then government was surprised under the lead of Golda Meir from the outbreak of the Jom Kippur War. After the Agranat Commission, as always appointed according to its chairman, attested government and general rod that he had discontinued intelligence instructions on an upcoming Arab attack as "not sound", Defense Minister Mosche Dajan held the first live broadlike television talk in Israeli history and croves crying his Resignation. Shortly thereafter, Meir also has her Buro. At that time, it sounds like in many media reports, politicians had still obsessed gross, responsibility; The refusal Olmts to take his hat, take many Israeli journalists as further proof of the increasing moral decline in domestic politics.
Only: 2007 is not 1973. At that time, the war followed a deep economic crisis, which the people drove on the strain and made for additional prere on the government. Such a crisis is not today — on the contrary: the unemployment drops that the others rise, and the first investigations of social facilities show no increased mobilization values. But still much heavier weighing the differences in the composition of the political landscape: At that time, in Israel, the workers’ party had said that Israel already dominated when there was no Israel. The Social Democrats traditionally stood the biggest faction whose human resources rarely seldally sank below 40 out of 120 deputies, and in parliament a somewhat more or less coarse variety of small fractions against Sab; There was no second People’s Party; because the Likud block, an association of some of these small parties, was grounded in 1974.
Once they were friends: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Aufemister Tzippi Livni embrace themselves after their swearing in April 2006. Photo: Knessen
Kadima could disappear from the political bean in new elections with Olmert
Today, however, even the rough parliamentary groups are quite small: Sitting in parliament, of which the large, Olmerts Kadima, just 29 seats (the future is a question of mathematics), was founded only one and a half years ago by the former head of government Ariel Scharon and neither a significant membership base still has a political program or profile (waiting where?To). Kadima, which has remained the Scharon party until today, in which Olmert acts as governor, because the party urgent is unpomparable in the hospital. The party became a large group because it promised the center of conflict of the center, building on the room of the Gaza Strip in the summer of 2005 further settlements to room.
But it happened, outside the Lebanon war and a variety of scandals, neither in security policy nor in the field of the second coarse election campaign, the social policy, something. Therefore, the party and its deputies have bounded to disappear from the picture flat in new elections. This was turned into a vacuum that is not foreseeable, who was fulfilling it: the small parties? The right? Benjamin Netanyahu, Ex-Premier and Chairman of the Likud Block, who came out of the past elections with Zwolf instead of 40 sites, shot at the top of the surveys: The Wahlers want someone in the chairmess that one knows who neither by war Still through corruption scandals (breaking the Olmerta burdened, demoscopes say. The fact that Netanyahu had tried very unsuccessful as a head of government at the end of the 1990s, was unimportant.
These are this existence of his deputies, at Olmert, who does not want to take his strategy in the Israeli history on the shortest resigning head of government in Israeli history. He woman: Since the opposition is missing the necessary votes or a self-resolution of Parliament, the coarse danger for his office is his own group. He also female: This faction would be a warranty change in the current game that the favorite — the head of government occurs back or is discontinued; Another member of Parliament asks the reigning Prasidente Dalia Itzik therefore to commission it or him with government education and then continues with the same or slightly changed coalition.
So Olmert and his team try to sign the faction where they can only be done by internally pointing out that the matter could also go wrong: what if the coalition partners do not want to start with or the new one? What if there are new elections? Believe me, we can do that, Olmert of the group said the report after a stormy session on Wednesday evening: a few weeks still, maybe even a few months, then the storm was over, then he has implemented the recommendations of the Winograd Commission perhaps even a few unauthorized settlement sads in the West Bank, made progress in social policy and then get better in the surveys.
Already after the election, the ratio of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Aufeisterkin Tzippi Livni began to get to Brockeln — too rough are the differences between the two politicians Photo: Knessenth
Foreign Minister Livni calls for a jerk of Olmert
But the signs of that that the strategy does not work, most of the Kadima deputies are behind the government, but internal the voices that Olmert "realitatless remote" accuse — "0.01 percent of the Wahler had voted on Monday for Olmert; that gives a very mind, "says one of the deputies after the meeting:" What probably has to happen, so that he ubest Netanyahu with his 26 percent? At the moment we are all waiting here, what happens, especially in Livni."
For Tzippi Livni, Au-Abin Minister and Deputy Government (not to be confused with the office of the Vice Prime Minister, which does not include any tasks), was taken to attack on Wednesday Olmerts on Wednesday: they recommend that they returned to him in a press conference. But they would not reuse them — a successful chess train, because it is one of the few government members who are not only criticized by the Winograd report, no, the report brings about the role of the Aufsmort and its boss even praising the war, just then To achieve further criticism against Olmert: The head of government has not cooperated with his Aufemister. "A backcast LIVNIS had been interpreted in the current situation as a guidance that there was no occasion," says an employee of the Minister: "If Olmert fires it, this will be a further proof of his character, because then goes with You one of the few ministers who have been certified honest competence."For the same reason, the most Olmert consultants advise from a sacking lives.
Meanwhile, it has better Defense Minister Peretz: As long as Olmert does not fire him, there is no possibility to get him from the office, and that even if he loses the leadership post of Social Democrats at the end of May at the end of May. It is amed: "We urgently need a fresh start when we do not want to go down together with Kadima," is repeatedly to horen members of the workers’ party, and all promising candidates promise to want the party from the government. Olmert had then in Parliament still 59 seats, and his chances of which lack of two seats can be fulfilled by members of the United Torah Union, have fallen significantly since Winograd. For as I said: Who is not already with him in a boat anyway, does not turn to Olmert for a long time. And that’s why the Prime Minister could watch out soon — after a new job.