After a study created for the institute for mobitat research, the traffic performance is continuing to increase despite social changes, demographic change and rising gasoline prices
The traffic volume and the mobilitat have been continuously increased. Globalization and cost prere will continue to grow the economically conditioned traffic. Decreasing and ovolting population, expansion of energy costs and, above all, decreasing real reel and a growing income class, however, could reverse the trend. The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) has now developed a study for the Institute for Mobilitat Research (IFMO), which wants to predict how incomes, mobility costs and demography until 2025 AU affect the mobility of social groups and a total of.
According to the DIW, the DIW will not change too much. The traffic performance, ie the sum of the resumed distances, will increase despite the population prere (by 1.4 million to 81, millions), by 2025 by 13 percent, traffic volume is expected to grow by 1 percent. That is, the routes traveled will become longer. In 2003, private households lay just under 900 billion kilometers and 90 billion ways. 2025 it should be 1015 billion kilometers for almost the same traffic after the forecast.
For the growing traffic benefit, among other things, the income-strong layers, singles, childless couples and the growing number of the old ones contribute. Single parents and families with three children. Most ride couples with children, but their number picks up like the number of young adults and children. Couples with children today still make a third of the mobility volume, until 2005 this should fall under one third.
People with high income also have an increased mobility and go even stronger towards "Motorized individual traffic. The highest growth rates, however, sees the study in the lower income statements. And the motorization should generally increase due to higher income. "The degree of engine", according to the study, rises from 540 in 2003 to 615 cars 1.000 inhabitants in 2025."Transportation expenses should generally increase below average of 1.6% per year, which was also an equally optimistic amption as the amed wage growth. The DIW goes by 1.8 percent from a decrease economy to 2025, decreasing unemployment and a segregable income of 1.4 percent per household.
Soothing, the DIW authors continue to are the IFMO financed by BMW: "The mostly discussed breaking away the middle class in Germany also occurs as little as a prohibitive strong increase in excess of mobilitat in total." The speech is only of a "light spreading" of the income. The study still expires from a crude price of $ 75 and want to believe that further increases remain moderate: "Oriented on existing long-term forecasts for 2025, we expect a crude price, the nominally clear (with $ 75 to 2.5-fold) high, real but with amptions for the development of exchange rates and inflation only in the duplication of the 2003 high price level lies." Since the reality seems to have survived the forecast within a short time.
For the high mobility, the study believes several factors at: stronger employment of women, further flexibilization of work, high qualifications and the increase in single households. The traffic performance is intended to rise very much in leisure from now on 398 to 453 billion kilometers and in the professional setting of 204 AU 241. You also continue to buy shopping or for private settings, only in the context of training sinking the ways and traffic volume. No wonder, as there will be fewer schools and students.
Motorized individual traffic is expected to raise significantly by 2025 for riders and riders — from more than 700 billion kilometers in 2003 to more than 800 billion, whereby the driver’s mobility growth, during which the passenger decreases, which means that there are more cars per household will be given and overhever more people will drive carsel, for which the rising number of the Fitten’s old attitudes also the kilometers to be influenced and bicycles should also be slightly sinking, the use of public transport, especially with regard to WOFUR ways Especially the falling school and student numbers are made responsible. The advent of all means of transport, so the further good news of BMW, with the exception of the car sink.