A heater future is before
There is a lot of speculation, whether and which climate change are imminent. Overall, the earth and extreme weather conditions are exposed to. Which factors play this role is discussed violently. It is certain that aerosols, tiny, solid and liquid particles in the atmosphere, have an impact on the global climate. In the Science Magazine Nature, a research group is now ensuring that the improvement of the air quality in the sense of more environmental protection could contribute to a faster and tighter emphasis on our climate.
Meinrat O. Andreae from Mainz Max-Planck Institute for Chemie, Chris Jones of the British Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research of the Met Office and Peter Cox of the Center for Ecology and Hydrology in Dorset have the effects of the cooling effect of man in the air-fueled aerosols ( the finest air-borne dust particles on the present and future climate investigated.
Aerosols are in the air floating microscopic particles with diameters from 0.001 to 100 microns. They are naturally rise as a result of sandstorms, fires, volcanic erosion, the gisht of the sea or by pollen and spores of plants in the atmosphere. There are also artificial particles released by humans, including, among other things, from the chimneys of private households, industry, power plants or exhaust systems, especially diesel vehicles. Especially the smallest among them, the so-called fine dust, is considered for humans health danger and therefore the outstand should be reduced (half a million dead per year by particulate matter).
Aerosols: Mineral dust rises from the Wuste Gobi into the atmosphere
Aerosols do not stay long in the lowest layer of atmosphere, the troposphere, globally viewed globally, their distribution varies again and again. It is safe that the small particles reflect a part of the solar radiation into space and thereby cow the earth, so to speak. In addition, they influence the cloud formation. Aerosols are therefore equal to part of the greenhouse effect, which is fueled by gases such as carbon dioxide.
However, these complex relationships are not yet complete, which is why the German-British research group employing various model calculations now reprinted the existing uncertainty in terms of this global cooling effect in the past and presence. And on the fact that a reduction of the fine particles in the air enhances the emphasis — maybe far beyond the previous estimates. Chris Jones compares the potential effect with driving a car when gas is added and braked at the same time:
Now we take the foot of the brake, but we do not know how much faster we will move thereby. Since we do not know exactly how strong the cooling effect was through aerosols so far, we can not know exactly how strong the emphasis will fail through greenhouse gases.
This uncertainty must be kept in mind and involves involved in the climate models of research projects. As part of the German Climate Research Program (Deklim), scientists already examine from the Institute for Troposphere Research in Leipzig in cooperation with other institutes systematically the influence of suspended particles on the climate (dusty atmosphere).
Plus six degrees
The team around Andreae comes with its calculations at a temperature rise by six degrees Celsius by the year 2100, whereby the most optimistic emission scenario is amed. The Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) came in its treasures so far only to an emphasis of a maximum of 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius.
The researchers are not about defending the outstob of aerosols. The number of particles must be reduced quickly as their harmful effects on health and the environment are undisputed. But if the previous buffer effect of the aerosols dropped, the effects could be much more dramatic than previously accepted. The possible consequences of such a scenario should be rapidly smucked in the focus of attention. The scientists call for the global carbon dioxide emissions in view of the existing uncertainties. Meinrat Andreae brings it to the point:
We go from a possible increase in temperature of 6 degrees Celsius and more. The conclusions for the political action carriers are comparable even at a temperature increase of 5 to 6 degrees, comparable to the temperature increase between the last ice age and today, enormously. If one considers the potentially serious consequences for our environment and society, the only meaningful approach results in an immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, with objectives significantly below those of the Kyoto Protocol.