Traumes from a thousand and a market economy

Traumes from a thousand and a market economy

The sacred equips in Mecca. Image: Wurzelgnohm / CC0

Saudi Arabia has not yet amed the OL, but the price decline forces the Konigshaus to a state-of-the-art offensive

The low OL price makes you to create many. Venezuela has introduced free days in public service to save electricity. And also in the country, which is no other for fabulous wealth thanks to abundant bubbling olource, the price decline is noticeable. Saudi Arabia, the Konigreich, in which with Mecca and Medina are the two holiest equips of Islam and where women do not drive to drive, this country is the money.

Once, the state budget based more than 90 percent from revenue from OL. The Saudis did not have to pay income taxes, education, health care, water, electricity, all this was free or strongly subsidized thanks to the olgewen. But the old price has now fallen by more than 100 dollars per barrel to around $ 40. For Saudi Arabia, this means: In 2015, 90 billion euros were missing in the state budget, with an economic output of 600 billion euros, this corresponded to a deficit of 15 percent of gross domestic product. In 2016, the deficit should decrease by output rays to 13.5 percent.

The lower oleas revenues force the ruling house to act. Although the crisis is not acute. The OL still flees the "Peak Oil", The global rearmaximum, is not yet reached. In addition, the state has formed reserves. From the OL sales, $ 732 billion has been saved once. But from that were only $ 632 billion in the end of 2015. So Saudi Arabia just lives from the substance that is getting smaller.

A vision for the year 2030

That’s why Saudi Arabia wants to reduce the dependence of OL. How, that has the government in the "Saudi Vision 2030" set.

Saudi Arabia is designed to stand on three souls. The first is the status as the heart of the Islamic world with the sanctuary in Mecca and Medina. Around one and a half million credits pilgrims each year to Mecca and bring money into the country. The second is his power as a financial investor, the third parties his strategically important location as a port that can connect the continents Europe, Africa and Asia. The Saudi Konigreich — no more gas station in the world, but a global financial investor with port facilities? The goods indeed new.

As a practical step in the new direction, the government has begotted to convert the State Oldon Aramco from an OlProter into a globally active industrial person. It fits that Saudi Arabia wants to partally privatize Aramco. Four percent of the shares are to be borse. Aramco currently has a market value of 2000 billion dollars. That’s as much as Google and Apple together. If only one percent was sold, it still was the biggest boron of history, said Vice-Kronprinz Mohammed Ibn Salman, who created the reform program and introduced the public. "We are dependent on OL", Rooms of the 31-year-old the transmitter "Al Arabiya" a. "This is dangerous. I think we can do without life by 2020."

Insecure bonded by the West

Mohammed Ibn Salman is the new strong man of the Konigreich, since on 23. January 2015 the rule of the deceased Konig Abdullah on his half-brother Salman Uberging. This made his son Mohammed Ibn Salman to Defense Minister, Vice-Kronprinz and Second Deputy Prime Minister. "He is considered extremely corrupt, rypingly and arrogant. Nobody in the political or diplomatic circles Saudi Arabia’s Weib’s positive about the new strong man in the government to say", At that time, wrote the German Middle East Correspondent Martin.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is increasingly regarding the west as an uncertain Allied. And Riad is desched by Washington because the West with Iran has closed the atom agreement that picks up the sanctions against the Shiite rivals. When US Prasident Barack Obama visited shortly Saudi Arabia, Konig Salman did not even bring him at the airport AB Obama’s views to the Middle East did not get to open ears. The outgoing US prasident had advised the Saudis in a coarse interview with the Jeffrey Goldberg journalist to join the Middle East with Iran "share", because only as deputy wars as in Syria and Yemen can be avoided.

Competition with Tehran

But Saudi guided only knows an aerial policy goal: to reduce the influence of Tehrans in the Middle East. So Riad wants to prevent Iran from recovering his old world market share after the Embargo’s abolition as an oleexporter of 4 million barrels in the day. Dear Saudi Arabia accepts a low price. And so are all attempts to limit mistresses, shortly failed (negotiations failed, old price sturled).

In the fight against the shiites, Riad does not shy back from military means. And so Saudi Arabia now drives war in Yemen against the Shiite Hutthi militias and thus against a possible influence of Iran on the Arabian peninsula. The war destination, the reinstimation of the prassident HADI, is not reached today. For this, millions of people on the run, the supply of the population is collapsed partially collapsed. In addition, Riyad has taken as collateral damage that the Terroriliz al Qaeda in Yemen. Because that is sunnitical and is ridely considered less dangerous than the huthis. Incidentally, for the war is the Minister of Defense Mohammed Ibn Salman.

Economic independence

Saudi Arabia is increasingly walking his own ways. In this respect, the "VISION 2030" Good to the new course, for the new independence — away from the USA, away from OL. Thus, the proportion of olf demand at the economy should decline from 47 to 11 percent. With the closed olgeldern the country is to become an economic global player with investments all over the world, but also a strong internal market, whose economic output should rise to $ 1600 billion by 2030. Growth should create new jobs and from today 4.5 million to 10.8 million rising. This is also necessary, because 37 percent of the population are young than 14 years. You will soon reach the labor market.

How the new Saudi Arabia looks like, that’s what the "VISION 2030" Very plastic: The consumer should be one "dynamic society" with "high quality of life" will; Environmental protection and renewable energies are high in the course; The country is family and child friendly, has an excellent health system and is open to visitors from all over the world; There are equal opportunities for all, regardless of gender, where women "One of the coarse activities" are the country in which education is invested. But of course, the country is still obliged to its Islamic values. In an still to be built "Islamic museum" Islamic history is shown.

From OL to the arms handler

But Saudi Arabia should also become military independent. Therefore, the consumer wants to build its own rust industry. After all, it has third-high militar procurement costs worldwide, but today only two percent of domestic enterprises, stop the "VISION 2030" steady. This should change: By 2030, 50 percent of rusts of the rust are to be tailored. Already today, armored vehicles and ammunition themselves were produced, plants should also be aircraft and other complicated weapon systems. Saudi Arabia was then also becoming a rustic exporter to generate new revenue here.

Economically a spirit of "Thatcherism" by Saudi Arabia, like the British "telegraph" noticed. Because the "VISION 2030" follows a report that the company consultancy McKinsey already in December 2015 under the title "Beyond Oil" had published. After this template, Saudi Arabia will become a competitive, modern economy. But that’s all theory of all theory: The International Territory Fund (IMF) has already pointed out in a study how hard it is "Raw material curse" to escape and to be independent of the OL.

In addition, it is completely unclear how the country responds, if no longer everything is highly subsidized. And how the spirituality can handle it, for example, the proportion of women in the procurement as planned from 7 to 24 percent rises. Not only because of course, the question arises as to whether the driver’s ban on women is still persistible to which religious ones want to stick to. Further opposition could come from the Konigfamilie itself, so by people who had liked to make career and now after Mohammed Ibn Salman had to. The previous Saudi model, OL against stability, has at any rate.

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